- European Central Bank meeting this week – preview – rate cuts seen September and December
- China plenum meeting against the background of calls for more economic stimulus
- China Stats spokesperson says demand not sufficient
- China June Industrial output +5.3% y/y (expected +5.0%) Retail sales +2.0% (3.3%% exp)
- China June new house prices -4.5% y/y (prior -3.9%)
- The PBoC has kept the 1-year MLF interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expected
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1313 (vs. estimate at 7.2548)
- Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking Monday, San Francisco’s Daly also
- US President Biden speech is on political violence after shots fired at Trump over weekend
- Bank of England Dhingra says demand is too soft for inflation to rise sharply
- Bitcoin higher alongside the prospects of a second Trump presidency
- Analysts at Fitch say the Fed has “an incentive to start cutting rates sooner than later”
- The prospect of an RBNZ rate cut in 2024 is rising
- UBS are wary of much more weakness ahead for the yen in the near term
- New Zealand services PMI for June 2024: 40.2 (prior 43.0)
- Goldman Sachs expects US equites to be flat for the rest of the year –
- It’s the MLF day in China – No rate cut expected from the People’s Bank of China
- Heads up for a holiday in Asia today – Japanese markets are closed (no UST physical trade)
- Economic calendar Asia Monday, 15 July 2024 – Chinese economic activity data, also Q2 GDP
- Trade ideas thread – Monday, 15 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
- Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – USD a touch stronger
- Weekly Market Outlook (15-19 July)
- Statement from Former Pres. Trump after assassination attempt
- Former Pres. Trump rushed off stage after apparent shots fired
- Bitcoin technical analysis: Where you can bet on making money (wait for these junctions!)
- Newsquawk Week Ahead: US & UK Retail Sales, Japan, NZ, UK and Canada CPI, and ECB
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 12 Jul: PPI not as friendly as the CPI
Weekend
crypto markets reflected the news of the assassination attempt on
Trump. Bitcoin rose and it continued to do so. Its above US$62400 as
I update. Trump has been courting the votes of the crypto community.
The
political upshot of the weekend is that it has lifted the chance of
Trump winning the presidential election. Trump was already
well-placed given the cognitive and physical decline evident in US
President Biden.
While
the Trump news occurred Saturday evening in the US, which is Sunday
morning in Asia, major markets only opened on Monday. Very early Asia
saw a small gap higher for the US dollar pretty much across the
board. If you are unfamiliar with Asia markets, forex opens many,
many hours before fixed interest, gold, oil, equities (and equity
index futures), and anything else you can think of. Liquidity is
super-thin when its only New Zealand markets open, and then
Australian. It improves as Tokyo comes on line a few hours later, but
it was a holiday in Japan today so the wait was prolonged until
trade began in Singapore and Hong Kong.
The
move higher for the USD has unwound a little as I post. It wasn’t a
large rise for the dollar.
From
China today we had a barrage of information:
- The
Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate was left unchanged at 2.5%.
This is strongly suggestive (but not a guarantee) of Loan Prime Rates
(LPRs) being left unchanged also this month - Q2
GDP missed expectations, substantially - June
economic activity data were mixed, retail sales were a huge miss
Earlier
in the session we had a dreadful services PMI from New Zealand. June
came in at 40.2, the second month in a row of the lowest level of
activity for the sector for a non-COVID lockdown month since the
survey began in 2007.
