Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 32.85.
- Set a stop-loss order below 32.70.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 33.29.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 33.25.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 33.34.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 32.99.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The dollar-Turkish lira pair rose at the beginning of this week, following a slight increase in the Turkish lira at the end of last week. Investors followed the developments of monetary policy over the weekend, through the statements of the Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey, Gudat Akcay, who confirmed the exclusion of any change in monetary policy, saying that cutting interest rates is not currently on the bank’s agenda. Akcay emphasized that there is no room to doubt the tightening of monetary policy. Also, the Deputy Governor stated that if the interest rate is cut prematurely, there are concerns about the return of inflation, especially since inflation expectations have not yet stabilized, despite the interest rate hike, which has slowed demand.
Akçay said that inflation witnessed a shift to decline on a monthly basis to about 2% during the month of June, and Akçay added that tax and price adjustments may contribute to adding 1.5 points to monthly inflation during the current month, which may increase inflation again beyond expectations. Finally, the statements of the Turkish official included a reference to the increase in the size of reserves, in conjunction with the increase in demand for Turkish lira deposits. In contrast to a decline in the mechanism of lira deposits protected from foreign exchange rate fluctuations.
Meanwhile, it is worth noting that the latest forecasts issued by the Central Bank regarding the Consumer Price Index for the current month. According to the latest survey of market participants, may see an increase of 2.77%, while experts expect the Consumer Price Index to record an increase between 3.5% and 4% during the current month.
TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the US dollar exchange rate against the Turkish lira “USD/TRY” rose slightly during today’s trading, while the pair stabilized within the same trading range that it moved within for most of the current month. Furthermore, the pair is trading within the range of an ascending wedge pattern on the daily timeframe, as shown by the chart. The pair received support by moving above the 50 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the daily timeframe, while the price moved between these same averages on the four-hour timeframe, reflecting divergence on the medium term within the overall upward trend of the pair on the larger timeframe. If the pair rises, it targets resistance levels cantered at 33.16 and 33.25 lira, respectively. While if the pair declines, it targets support levels at 32.80 and 32.69 lira, respectively. Ultimately, the Turkish lira price forecast includes the pair’s divergence as long as it stabilizes within the wedge pattern.
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