While producer prices are important, consumer sentiment trends could offer insight into consumer spending trends. Economists expect the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index to rise from 70.1 in September to 70.8 in October. Improving sentiment may signal stronger demand, possibly offsetting the influence of producer prices on Fed policy bets.
Upbeat US data could drive the USD/JPY toward 150. However, weak numbers may signal a drop toward 147.5.
Short-term Forecast for USD/JPY
USD/JPY trends will likely hinge on the US data and central bank commentary. Softer producer prices and a fall in consumer sentiment could retrigger bets on a 50-basis point Fed rate cut. However, central bank commentary will be crucial following this week’s economic data releases.
Traders should stay alert as monetary policy chatter, Japan’s economic data, and the US economic indicators will affect trading USD/JPY strategies. Monitor real-time data, central bank views, and expert commentary to adjust your trading strategies accordingly. Stay ahead of the market with our expert insights.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
Daily Chart
The USD/JPY hovers well above the 50-day EMA while remaining below the 200-day EMA, sending bullish near-term but bearish longer-term price signals.
A USD/JPY break above the 200-day EMA could support a move toward the trend line and the 151.685 resistance level. Selling pressure could intensify at the resistance level. The trend line is confluent with it.
Consumer sentiment, producer prices, and central bank commentary require close monitoring.
Conversely, a break below the 148.529 support level could signal a fall to 147.5. A drop through 147.5 could give the bears a run at the 50-day EMA.
The 14-day RSI at 61.73 suggests a USD/JPY return to 150 before entering overbought territory.
