As the yuan navigates these choppy waters, one must ask: What’s driving this revival, and how will it impact the Indian rupee?
The Weakened Dollar: A Catalyst for the Yuan
The yuan’s recent rally can largely be attributed to the softening of the US dollar. The dollar’s slide was sparked by several factors, including the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) unexpected rate hike, which led to an unwinding of short positions against the yen and triggered a broader sell-off of the dollar.
Compounding this, recent US economic data, such as a Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 2.9% and a Producer Price Index (PPI) of 2.2%, have heightened expectations of a potential 0.50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.
This dovish sentiment, fueled further by comments from Fed officials, saw the Dollar Index (DXY) retreat towards 101.31, providing the yuan with the breathing room needed to rebound closer to the midpoint of its trading range.
The People’s Bank of China: A Steady Hand on the Wheel
Behind the scenes, the People’s Bank of China has been quietly yet decisively steering the yuan’s course. The PBOC’s actions, including setting a robust daily fixing rate and likely deploying foreign reserves, have been pivotal in stabilizing the yuan. These interventions are part of a broader strategy aimed at bolstering market confidence amid a challenging economic landscape.
Additionally, China’s government has rolled out stimulus measures targeting sectors in need and shoring up investor sentiment, further supporting the yuan’s ascent.
Economic Indicators and Market SentimentThe yuan’s strengthening is also buoyed by improved economic indicators. Recent data showcasing positive GDP growth and robust industrial production have reignited investor optimism regarding China’s economic prospects. This, coupled with an influx of foreign investments, has reinforced the yuan’s position in the global market, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of appreciation.
Market Sentiment and the Unwinding of the Carry Trade
The Chinese yuan’s recent appreciation can also be attributed to a shift in market sentiment, particularly in response to the unwinding of the carry trade. Since the beginning of this month, the yuan has already strengthened by over 1%, reflecting traders’ growing concerns about a potential US recession. This change in sentiment has prompted a move away from carry trades, where currencies like the yen and yuan are borrowed to invest in higher-yielding assets.
This shift could lead exporters and speculators, who have amassed over $500 billion in dollar holdings since 2022, to convert these dollars back into yuan. With the market currently pricing in a yield gap of 3%-4% between the currencies of China and the US based on one-year dollar-onshore yuan swaps, the Chinese currency’s rally offers the People’s Bank of China some relief, allowing for greater flexibility in managing the domestic economy.
The Yuan’s Rebound: A Double-Edged Sword for the Indian Rupee?
As the yuan gains ground, its movements are beginning to cast a shadow over the Indian rupee. India’s substantial trade deficit with China—hovering between $80 billion and $85 billion—means that any appreciation in the yuan could exacerbate the cost of imports, putting additional pressure on the rupee.
Moreover, the Chinese Central Bank’s recent decision to implement its largest interest rate cut since April 2020 has pushed the USDCNY towards 7.0800, with the CNYINR approaching 11.80 levels. If the Federal Reserve moves ahead with the anticipated rate cuts, the USDCNY is likely to appreciate further. In such a scenario, if the RBI continues its strategy of purchasing dollars to weaken the rupee, India’s trade deficit with China could deepen, compounding the challenges for the Indian economy with an increasing trade deficit.
For now, it appears that the rupee will trade within a narrow range of 83.70 to 84.05 against the dollar, as the RBI carefully navigates the complex interplay between domestic economic needs and the broader global financial landscape. However, as the yuan continues its upward march, the RBI may need to recalibrate its approach, adjusting its strategy to manage the exchange rate without worsening the trade deficit with China.
On the outlook front, the USDCNY is expected to continue strengthening, potentially moving towards the 7.08 level. If it surpasses 7.08, it could further advance towards the 7.02 mark. In parallel, the CNYINR could rise towards 12.00, with a possible extension to the 12.20 level.
Conversely, in the short term, the Indian rupee is likely to trade within a narrow range of 83.80 to 84.05, with a slightly broader range of 83.90 to 84.20 anticipated in the medium term. The rupee’s movement will largely depend on the Reserve Bank of India’s actions and external factors.
(The author is MD, CR Forex Advisors)
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
