The Canadian dollar has lost about half a cent against the USD Friday overnight and into Monday morning after reaching a one-week high to end last week on strong Canadian employment numbers. The Canadian dollar was drifting higher throughout the day on improving crude oil prices after OPEC announced that they are ready to adjust prices at any time, which is code for cutting production to increase prices.
Overall, markets are awaiting Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation number. Market expectation is for US inflation to drop in January from 3.4% to 2.9% percent month-over-month. If inflation comes in as expected, or even lower, this may reignite the debate between markets expecting more aggressive cuts and Fed officials who have been continuously signaling that no imminent cuts are expected and, when they come, they will come gradually.
With no Canadian economic news expected out this week, the Canadian dollar will move with broad market movements and be impacted by general global market risk sentiment. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a relatively tight range, pinned below 1.3550 and above 1.3350. We don’t expect it to break out of this range unless there is a dramatic change with Tuesday’s US CPI number.