Currencies: down 0.2% overall but no weekly trend – 2024-01-19

The dollar ended the week on a heavy note (dropping -0.2%), but gained +0.6% over the week: the $-Index fell back to 103.3 on Friday, and did not benefit from the jump in the Michigan confidence index of +9pts to 78.8 this month.

It is now at its highest level since July 2021, whereas economists were forecasting a much more modest rise to around 70.
The Michigan index is back to within 7% of its all-time high reached in 1978.
The survey component measuring consumers’ judgement of the current situation rose to 83.3 from 73.3 the previous month, while that measuring their expectations rose to 75.9, after 67.4 in December.
One-year inflation expectations as measured by the survey fell back to 2.9%, the lowest since the end of 2020, thus returning to the historic range of 2.3% to 3% that prevailed before the Covid epidemic.

The greenback is holding its own against the yen at 148.3 (+0.1%); it is gaining +0.15% against the pound but losing ground against the Swiss franc.
Overall, no new trend is emerging, either on a daily or weekly basis… visibility remains low.

In Europe, no notable catalyst, the Euro grabs 0.2% at $1.0890

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