Another quiet session on the FOREX despite a salvo of indicators on both sides of the Atlantic and statements by FED members that upset the rate cut scenarios that were almost unanimous a week earlier.
The hypothesis of a status quo on November 7 now attracts 25% of votes, while a -50Pts drop has fallen below 10%.
The ‘$-Index’ remained virtually stable until mid-afternoon (close to 103), or even slightly down (-0.1 to -0.15%, towards 102.85) after the ‘figures of the day’ in the US appeared to be in balance.
The rise in core PPI to +3.2% (+0.4%) was offset by the publication of US consumer confidence, which fell slightly to 68.9 from 70.1 according to the index calculated by the University of Michigan.
This downturn – where economists were expecting a slight rise instead – reflects declines in both the current economic assessment component (-0.6 points to 62.7) and the expectations component (-1.5 points to 72.9).
Shortly before the ‘UMich’, the Dollar had advanced to around 1.0900 against the Euro, and this evening, it is the Euro that is clawing back 0.1% to 1.0945.
On the other hand, the Dollar is appreciating against the Yen (+0.3% to 149) and the Pound (+0.1% to 1.3070), and remains unchanged against the Swiss Franc.
Over the week, the euro is down -0.25% against the dollar… which is stagnating against the yen, which is attempting to defend its mid-August support of 149.3.
On Friday, the dollar posted its highest return (4.11%) since the end of July at around 2.30 p.m. with the release of the PPI: US producer prices were flat in September compared with the previous month, and rose by 0.1% in core terms (excluding food, energy and commercial services).
However, a closer look at the Labor Department data reveals that, in year-on-year terms, while the increase in US PPI ‘core’ remained stable as expected at 1.8% in August, prices reaccelerated from +2.8% to 3.2% excluding food, energy and commercial services.
The rate of inflation in Germany, on the other hand, continued to fall, with the year-on-year ICP standing at +1.6% in September 2024, according to Destatis, which thus confirms its preliminary estimate.
“In particular, further falls in energy prices slowed inflation more significantly than in previous months”, points out Destatis, which nevertheless notes that price rises in services are still above average.
Down 0.3 points on its August level, the annual inflation rate thus confirms its return to below 2%, and reaches its lowest level since February 2021, when it stood at 1.5%.
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