MOSCOW (Reuters) – The Russian rouble weakened further on Thursday, remaining at its lowest against the U.S. dollar and China’s yuan since October 2023.
At 0740 GMT the rouble was down 0.4% at 97.40 against the dollar, LSEG data showed. The rouble on Wednesday hit the 97 mark for the first time since October last year.
The rouble was down 1.29% against the yuan at a one-year low of 13.65, according to LSEG data. In trade on the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX), the rouble was down 0.18% at 13.71 to the yuan.
“The rouble has once again hit yearly lows; an autumn slide of the national currency is almost 15%,” said analysts at broker BCS.
Analysts pointed to several factors behind current rouble weakness, including the Oct. 12 expiration of a licence from the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) allowing commercial banks to deal with MOEX.
The licence was issued to allow banks to wind down operations with MOEX after Western sanctions on the exchange and its clearing agent, the National Clearing Centre, were introduced on June 12.
The sanctions stopped all trade in dollars and euros at MOEX, making China’s yuan the most traded foreign currency in Russia. Trade in dollars and euros has shifted to the over-the-counter (OTC) market, obscuring price data.
There is concern in the market that Chinese banks providing yuan liquidity for exchange trading could pull out for compliance reasons after the OFAC licence expires.
Other factors pressuring the rouble included weaker oil prices over the August-September period, exporters withholding foreign exchange due to international transactions problems as well as growth in cross-border settlements in roubles, analysts and traders said.
Increased foreign exchange sales by the state in October are supporting the Russian currency but this was not sufficient to offset the downward pressure, analysts said.
One-day rouble-dollar futures, which trade on the Moscow exchange and are a guide for OTC market rates, were flat at 96.54. The central bank’s official exchange rate, which it calculates using OTC data, was set at 96.95 to the dollar.
The rouble was down 0.42% at 106.55 against the euro, LSEG data showed.
Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for Russia’s main export, edged up 0.67% to $77.07 a barrel.
(Reporting by Gleb Bryanski; Editing by David Goodman)
