Should we conclude that Democrats are ‘bearish for the dollar’?
And the answer is, again, no! A study by Imperial College Business School analysing data over a 40-year period shows that the US dollar appreciated by an average of 4.15% per year during Democratic presidential cycles and depreciated by 1.25% per year on average during Republican cycles.
In conclusion, it is still unwise to base investment strategies solely on the colour of the political candidate that wins the election. The emergence of certain economic crises or geopolitical events shapes the dollar’s trajectory, as well as the behaviour of the Federal Reserve in response to these events. It is clearly more judicious to rely on the observation and analysis of these events to make investment decisions.
Is Trump more favourable to Bitcoin than Kamala Harris?
If it’s a question of media noise, then yes, Donald Trump is significantly more vocal about cryptos than Kamala Harris. Beyond the announcement of the launch of his decentralised cryptocurrency platform, ‘World Liberty Financial’ (whose actual launch date is still unknown), and his regular presence on social networks, it’s difficult to know if the former US president would implement a genuinely pro-crypto policy if elected for a second term.
A few years ago, he described Bitcoin as a ‘looming disaster’ and a ‘scam’, yet today he is one of its most fervent supporters. There is, therefore, a degree of political opportunism and posturing in these statements of recent months.
