AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6941 short term top extended to 0.6701 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.6701 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.6743) should confirm rejection by 0.6941 fibonacci level. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 0.6621 support next. On the upside, however, break of 0.6809 minor resistance will bring retest of 0.6941 high instead.
In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. Firm break of 100% projection of 0.6269 to 0.6870 from 0.6340 at 0.6941 will target 138.2% projection at 0.7179. However, break of 0.6621 support will argue that rise from 0.6269 has completed and bring deeper fall back to 0.6269/6348 support zone.
In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Firm of 0.7156 resistance will argue that the third leg has already started towards 0.8006.
