The GBP/USD remains within mid-term lows as nervous sentiment has taken hold of global Forex and financial institutions brace for the likelihood of more volatility in the days ahead.
- The GBP/USD closed near the 1.29600 level going into this weekend, which might be seen as a good achievement by bullish traders looking for an upturn considering a low last week touched the 1.29060 vicinity on Wednesday with some sustained pressure.
- The GBP/USD has seen a rather steady bearish trend develop since trading above the 1.34300 level in late September.
However, day traders who believe this is simply a cyclical downturn because the GBP/USD was overbought in late September need to also take into account the large wave of nervous behavioral sentiment that has generated power across global Forex the past month.
The U.S election is in a little more than a week. And before that, this week Advance GDP, inflation data, and the Non-Farm Employment Change statistics will be published. And oh, yes, the U.S Federal Reserve will conduct its FOMC Meeting next week and announce its interest rate decision on the 7th of November.
A Cyclone of Dangerous Behavioral Sentiment for the GBP/USD
Day traders who are merely looking at technical charts and refuse to listen to fundamental news developing around them will be tested this week. There is far too much economic data and political news within the current cycle of events coming this week and next. Behavioral sentiment in financial institutions even among experienced veterans is being tested and feared. The GBP/USD has sustained values below the 1.30000 since Tuesday of last week.
Nervous correlations with the GBP/USD and other major currencies that have been suffering from values losses are easy to see. The strength of the USD the past few weeks has been strong and kept the GBP/USD within a rather steady downturn.
Traders who believe the GBP/USD has been oversold may be proven correct, but this coming week and next, speculators need to be braced for the potential of a wild ride. Risk management will not only be essential, but some day traders may be wise to simply sit on the sidelines.
U.K Economy and Thoughts about the Bank of England
Data from the U.K continues to be lackluster. Inflation however has shown that it may be coming under control, which should be a good thing for the Bank of England if they want to remain dovish.
The question that financial institutions are trying to figure out within the haze of additional news flow being created by U.S political winds which are dangerous, is what the Bank of England will do regarding its Official Bank Rate on the 7th of November. Yes, the BoE is going to announce its interest rate policy before the Federal Reserve on the same day in a week and a half.
- Most analysts expect the Bank of England will cut its interest rate by another 0.25. Then the crux of the conversation will then turn to what the Fed will do.
- This week’s U.S economic data will offer some clues.
- The Federal Reserve would like to remain aggressively dovish and cut interest rates further, but will they be able to do this and signal this to financial institutions?
- The GBP/USD looks oversold based on nervousness, but impetus needs to be seen via U.S data this week.
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook:
Speculative price range for GBP/USD is 1.28850 to 1.30975
Day traders who have been participating actively with the GBP/USD currency pair may be used to the volatility and feel comfortable. However, the volatility seen the past few weeks may actually start to become worse in the approaching days.
Tomorrow and Tuesday may remain relatively calm, but the U.S Advance GDP numbers will be seen on Wednesday. Then inflation numbers are on the schedule Thursday from the U.S via the PCE Price Index, and then on Friday the jobs data will hit.
And yes the U.S election coming in a week’s time will start to see financial institutions bracing for the results. Perhaps large players have already positioned their cash forward transactions via their expected results. Which also means they may start thinking about profit taking if they have been on the right side of the trading momentum, meaning volatile reversals could develop too later this week. Again, trading the GBP/USD over the next week and a half will be dangerous.
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