Nasdaq 100 Futures Plunge 2% on Tech Earnings, Tariff Confusion

10-year T-note, gold, crude oil and euro futures

1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): -1.99% 
2. 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): -0.06% 
3. Gold futures (/GC): -0.71% 
4. Crude oil futures (/CL): +0.72% 
5. Euro futures (/6E): +0.35% 

Disappointing tech earnings and more confusion over the timing and impact of Trump’s tariffs have markets zig-zagging today. U.S. equity markets have started to move off their lows after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said goods covered under the USMCA trade deal will be exempted from the tariffs, adding a new contour to the defining trading narrative. The on-again, off-again nature of the tariff announcements is doing no favors for the U.S. dollar, which is pacing for its worst weekly loss since October 2022. 

The consequences of the new administration’s job cuts became evident this morning with the latest data on initial jobless claims. That is spooking the market ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report. Nasdaq 100 futures (/NQH5) fell nearly 2% in early trading, reversing the bulk of yesterday’s gains. The trend for the market is clearly lower as concerns about growth consume any lingering bullish sentiments. Market observers see the consequences of tariffs as a negative, and the uncertainty is driving volatility higher, causing investors to flee from stocks. Marvell Technology (MRVL) fell 20% after the company disappointed the market with its guidance. Chip makers as a group fell, reflected by a 3% down move in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) alongside news that Alibaba (BABA) revealed a new AI model that is on par with DeepSeek R1.   

The 10-year T-note futures (/ZNM5) fell slightly this morning as borrowing costs in Europe continued to rise on the back of a plan from Germany that will boost defense and infrastructure spending. Meanwhile, bond traders continue to mull over the details of tariffs, which could put inflation pressures back into the economy. The uncertainty around the intent of the U.S. administration has kept market participants on their toes, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will speak today.  

Gold is facing some headwinds as Treasury yields and borrowing costs abroad rise. The metal is ripe for profit taking as it hovers just below its recent all-time highs. Gold futures (/GCJ5) trimmed earlier losses in early New York trading but remained negative through the first hour of the Wall Street cash session. Gold’s fundamentals remain bullish, but the metal requires a catalyst to clear levels just below the psychologically imposing 3,000 level. Tomorrow’s jobs report could be one possible trigger for the metal to find a new direction. Meanwhile, copper prices (/HGK5) continued to see bids after a positive overnight session in Chinese equities.  

Crude oil futures (/CLJ5) rose about 0.72% this morning as the market digested news from the U.S. about plans to reduce the flow of Iranian oil by inspecting oil tankers from the country, according to a report from Reuters. President Trump has vowed to take a maximum pressure approach against the Middle Eastern nation. The move comes after the U.S. imposed additional sanctions on Iranian oil just a couple of months ago, targeting Iran’s shadow tanker fleet that sails without the required insurance and licensing from Western nations.  

As widely expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) today, and it likewise delivered relatively staid economic projections. But the ECB has a history of ignoring fiscal policy intentions until pen hits paper, so the recent news of the German fiscal spigot opening isn’t part of the forecasts. To that end, the dramatic shift in near-term growth expectations—higher in Europe, lower in the U.S.—continues to drive the dramatic collapse in the U.S. dollar, now on pace for its worst week since October 2022. 

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater
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