It’s not clear what’s going on in yen trading today. Justin earlier speculated about intervention but noted that the move didn’t have the usual hallmarks of the Ministry of Finance slamming the bid.
What’s tough is that so much that’s happening in markets right now is tough to explain. There is some intense rotation ongoing in stock markets that’s led to the worst day for the Nasdaq since 2022 and chipmakers are falling hard. The Russell 2000 is 0.9% lower today but that’s after a 12% rally over 5 days.
It’s a confusing mess that’s seen volatility jump and yields decline.
I’m sympathetic to the arguments about intervention and wouldn’t rule it out but there is some real de-leveraging ongoing in a world that’s over-levered.
It’s a good time to look at the technicals.
USDJPY daily
Earlier, Greg highlighted the USD/JPY chart.
He noted that “the 38.2% retracement comes in at 156.18, so there’s reason for traders to stick a toe in the water right here but watch for sellers at 157.11.
