USD/JPY’s rebound from 139.57 extended to as high as 153.18 last week but formed a temporary top there and retreat. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. Further rally is in favor as long as 151.18 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 will pave the way to retest 161.94 high. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 151.18 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 148.05).
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 133.87).
