USA Dollar

Treasury yields bust out but the dollar doesn’t follow — TradingView News

Key points:

  • US February JOLTs job openings 8.756M vs 8.750M estimate
  • US February factory orders +1.4% vs +1.0% expected
  • Fed’s Mester: Still expects the Fed can cut rates later this year but not at next meeting
  • Mester: Three rate cuts for 2024 is still a reasonable forecast
  • More Mester: Seeing some slowing in the economy, but it is rebalancing
  • Fed’s Daly: Standing pat is the right policy for the moment
  • More from SF Fed Pres.Mary Daly: When we say 2% is inflation goal, we mean it
  • Xi: Taiwan is first red line that cannot be crossed in China-US relations
  • New Zealand GDT price index +2.8%
  • Fed’s Bowman limits comments to bank regulation. Williams and Mester to come
  • Shares of Tesla fall 7% as March deliveries badly miss estimates
  • Germany March preliminary CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y expected


  • Gold up $26 to $2276
  • US 10-year yields up 2.8 bps to 4.357%
  • WTI crude oil up $1.39 to $85.10
  • Bitcoin down 5.2%
  • S&P 500 down 0.7%
  • AUD leads, CHF lags

The new quarter continues to send mixed signals in markets. North American traders arrived to a breakout in Treasury yields with 10s climbing above the key 4.35% double top and hitting 4.40%. But FX didn’t follow as the US dollar struggled to hold a bid.

In fact, as the day continued the US dollar sold off. Some of that may have been benign JOLTS and Fed officials keeping 3 cuts in play but it was stark to see AUD so strong given stocks and bonds.

That has left everyone scratching their heads and playing for time ahead of a big finish to the week in terms of economic data, including ISM services on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls on Friday.

The bid in the euro was particularly odd given softer German CPI and tomorrow’s scheduled HICP data, which should offer a green light for the ECB to cut if they want to. EUR/USD tracked to 1.0775 from 1.0725 in steady bids into the European close and flat trading afterwards.

Gold was also in the spotlight again as it hit a new all-time high. The move wasn’t without volatility as it rose to $2278 then backed off nearly $30 before a second push to finish at the highs.

Oil was also strong as WTI crude closed above $85 for the first time since November.

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