(CercleFinance.com) -The euro (+0.35%) ended the week above $1.0900: the weekly gain was +0.6%, and +0.9% since the start of the “complicated” post-dissolution political sequence in France.
The dollar failed to bounce back from Thursday’s -0.5% fall, despite better-than-expected PPI figures: producer prices rebounded, largely offsetting the -0.1% sequential decline in consumer prices (CPI down to 3.00% and +3.4% on a core basis).
In fact, the ‘PPI’ rose by +0.2% overall (not a pleasant surprise) and by +0.4% in ‘core’ data (excluding food + energy).
This was to be expected, given the rise in oil prices over the past month, not to mention the cost of freight, with the Suez Canal still neutralized.
But this has no impact on the consensus for a rate cut in mid-September, which jumped on Thursday from 75 to 90%: we would really need a series of very “robust” growth figures to call into question the 2 X -25Pts scenario by the end of 2024 (a far cry from the -6 or -7 X 25Pts of the beginning of the year).
The $-Index (-0.3%) ended the week at a low of 104 (-0.9% weekly), its worst mark since June 6… and also at a low against the yen (+0.55%), which climbed to 157.90 (+2% against the $ weekly).
Copyright (c) 2024 CercleFinance.com. All rights reserved.
